![]() Fashion brands are usually driven both by their next collection and their long-term brand value. Any business needs to consider what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year and a decade from now. Nevertheless, this did not prevent Captain Obvious from suggesting that the forecasting battalions should be organized according to their respective horizons.įrom a business perspective, there is also little reason to believe that, in the general case, this approach of dividing-up the timeline is correct, or even remotely satisfying. Thus, this undermines the validity of those supposedly “distinct” horizons. On the contrary, there is a great deal of results that tend to support the opposite: superior methods (accuracy-wise) tend to be superior irrespective of the horizon. In addition, from a statistical forecasting perspective, there is next to little to support the claim that the most accurate forecasting method will vary from one of those horizons to the next. ![]() On the contrary, until proven otherwise, we should be skeptical about any “special” term or concept. It’s not because we have a word and its definition that there is anything fundamentally “true” or “valid” or “profound” about it. What Captain Obvious did here is merely a minor refinement of the generic meaning of these words from an almost imperceptible supply chain perspective. Captain Obvious went into great detail to distinguish multiple planning horizons: The first illustration that emerges from a record we have of Captain Obvious’ journey in supply chain relates to supply planning. Thus, Captain Obvious came up with a simple technique to produce materials that look profound without resorting to any actual substance: the tautology in disguise. Thanks to this realization, just like a Judo grandmaster who can leverage the strength of his opponent, Captain Obvious realized that he could put this complexity to his own advantage to obfuscate his own ignorance. Upon arriving at the battlefield, Captain Obvious immediately realized that supply chains are a complex and haphazard collection of people, processes, machines, software, etc. In particular, we will review a short list of methods that can be put to great use to produce materials that have the veneer of science while being almost entirely devoid of any actual knowledge. However, today, our goals are far more modest, and we will only review a few of the founding principles of the Obvious Calvary who is dealing with qualitative matters. There would be much to be said about all the precepts, insights and methods that Captain Obvious inspired in the world of the supply chain. On the other hand, artillery focuses on quantitative battlefields involving models (algorithms, numerical recipes, simulations, etc.), to forecast and/or optimize supply chains. Cavalry concerns itself with qualitative battlefields involving perspectives (views, paradigms, concepts, etc.) to understand and improve supply chains. These two branches happen to reflect the two types of contributions that dominate supply chain as a field of study: qualitative and quantitative. Oversimplifying, Captain Obvious’s supply chain army has two main branches: cavalry and artillery. Yet, underneath the uniform, there is little to be found but a great deal of confusion diluted in a large amount of trivialities. Nevertheless, by pulling rank, they project some powerful authority. Also, they don’t acknowledge their affiliation either. Unfortunately, the legions are not making the field a better place. His natural leadership has inspired many who are now following the same path. Captain Obvious has been working overtime in supply chain.
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